EC Research Group - Empowering Busy Investors in 10 mins

Socialistic Capitalism

Eric Chang — Tue, 05 May 2026 23:01:20 GMT

We’re progressing into what I believe is the next version of Capitalism: Capitalism 2.0.

Last week we wrote about Canada’s launching a Sovereign Wealth Fund.

This week, we’re going to compare Canada to other parts of the world. Because a quiet but significant trend is emerging across developed countries. One that I believe represents the next version of Capitalism. Call it Capitalism 2.0. Or Socialistic Capitalism.

Whatever you call it, the implications for investors are enormous.

Government's increasing involvement in the financial markets

As many of my long-term subscribers know, I have been in real estate for many years, running a moderate-sized real estate portfolio and real estate development business in the multifamily asset class based in Alberta, Canada.

Over the past few years, the role the Government of Canada plays in the Canadian housing market has expanded significantly.

Policies and initiatives through Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) have been enacted to incentivize development of Purpose Built Rentals. Through high leverage (up to 95% Loan to Value), extended amortization (up to 50 years), and the Government’s increasing purchases of Canada Mortgage Bonds, representing close to 50% of new issuances in 2025, the government has effectively positioned itself as a price-setter (interest rate) in the mortgage market.

The Government of Canada announced on November 21, 2023 that it will begin purchasing up to C$30 billion of Canada Mortgage Bonds annually, commencing in 2024. In the 2024 calendar year, the Government of Canada purchased a total $29 billion of the $58 billion of fixed-rate Canada Mortgage Bonds primary issuances. The Government of Canada has indicated that it will continue to participate in all offerings of fixed-rate 5-year and 10-year Canada Mortgage Bonds proposed for 2025 and that it will target the purchase of 50% of such fixed-rate Canada Mortgage Bonds issued in 2025, although the amount it purchases of a particular new issuance may be more or less than 50% of that issuance
Source: https://assets.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/sites/cmhc/finance-investing/canada-mortgage-bonds/list-outstanding-cht-debt-issues/pdf/series-126b-luxembourg-circular.pdf

The launch of Canada’s Sovereign Wealth Fund is another step in this same direction. While I welcome the strategic intent of using capital to create tactical advantage for Canada, it represents yet another expansion of government into territory that was previously market-driven.

To be fair, Canada is not alone in this.

A refresher on Socialism

James K. Glassman, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, wrote an article as far back as 1999 raising the alarm about what happens when governments begin taking ownership stakes in private companies. This was before the Obama-era bailouts of Detroit automakers. Before recent developments where the US government took equity positions in select private companies, including Intel.

His warning is worth reading carefully:

Ownership of stock by the government raises deep and troubling issues.
[...]
I do not want to sound overly dramatic, but, by definition, the plan is a step toward the dictionary definition of socialism: government ownership of the means of production.
Thus, Congress must first answer this question: Should the federal government have an ownership stake in private corporations?
Source: https://www.aei.org/research-products/testimony/government-investing-in-the-stock-market/

That question was intended to be a debate in 1999.

Today, it’s now widely accepted and even celebrated by the President.

A President who represents a Party that has championed free market in recent memory.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies has also reported on the significant shift in U.S. industrial policy, noting the expanding footprint of federal equity investments in strategic companies. You can read their full analysis here: Understanding Federal Equity Investments in Strategic Companies.

The US government now holds direct equity stakes in private companies it deems strategically important. That is a meaningful shift from the past.

Japan has gone to the extreme in practicing Socialistic Capitalism

Before you brush off what’s happening in Canada and the US as minor, let me show you the extreme end of the spectrum. I’ll use a country I’m currently visiting as the example.

Since 2010, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) began purchasing Japanese Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), these are investment products similar to mutual funds that invested in domestic Japanese companies.

The BOJ has a reported book value of 37 trillion yen (around $243 billion) in ETF holdings on its balance sheet, with an estimated market value of 70 trillion yen to 80 trillion yen. This amounts to roughly 7% of Japan’s stock market capitalization.
Source: https://cetex.org/news/the-boj-must-define-a-strategy-for-its-etf-holdings-not-just-its-sales/

Bank of Japan currently owns roughly 7% of the entire Japanese stock market.

That also represents roughly 80% of Japan’s entire exchange-traded funds.

Read that again:

The Bank of Japan owns roughly 80% of the Japanese ETF market!

And that’s before factoring in the Japanese Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF), which holds roughly 73 trillion yen in Japanese companies. That’s another 6% of the entire Japanese stock market.

Image Credit: GPIF

Combined, the Japanese government controls roughly 13% of its entire domestic stock market. A market that, without this intervention, could function very different.

What's the problem?

History has shown us what happens when socialism takes hold: highly inefficient capital allocation, followed by economic decline.

Now, Capitalism 2.0 isn’t pure socialism. But it introduces the same core problem. When government steps in as a perpetual asset buyer, asset prices detach from their fundamentals. The price discovery mechanism breaks down.

Price discovery is the continuous, market-driven process of determining the fair value of an asset through the interaction of buyers and sellers.

When one buyer has essentially unlimited resources, and that buyer is the government, the market stops functioning as a truth-telling mechanism.

Asset prices stay inflated. Not because of genuine demand. Because of policy.

Make no mistake: this is not healthy in the long run.

It took the Japanese government owning roughly 13% of its entire stock market to keep a fragile market from collapse. That’s a market that was previously on life support, brought back to life through intervention.

The longer investors grow comfortable with the idea that government will always bail them out, the more it encourages reckless speculation. Risk is mispriced. Bad decisions get rewarded. And the eventual correction, when it comes, is far more painful than it would have been without all the artificial support.

That’s a topic we’ll unpack in future issues.

For now, the question worth sitting with is this: If price discovery is compromised, how do you know what anything is actually worth?

If you like my work, I invite you to share it with others.

Thanks for reading EC Research Group - Empowering Busy Investors in 10 mins! This post is public so feel free to share it.

Eric Chang

Tokyo, Japan

May 5, 2026

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Carney went back to his investment banker roots

Eric Chang — Wed, 29 Apr 2026 01:15:03 GMT

Mark Carney just made his most ambitious move yet.

Last week, the Prime Minister announced the creation of Canada’s first national sovereign wealth fund.

According to BNN Bloomberg:

The federal government will initially contribute $25 billion into the fund, which Carney says “will grow through asset recycling and reinvestment, creating even greater opportunities for future generations.”
Source: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/politics/2026/04/27/pm-carney-announces-canadas-first-national-sovereign-wealth-fund/

Purpose of sovereign wealth fund

A sovereign wealth fund is a government-owned investment fund designed to grow national wealth.

The most well-known examples are Norway’s Government Pension Fund Global, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, and Singapore’s GIC. These funds have one shared objective: deploy capital strategically to generate long-term returns for the nation.

Think of it as a country investing for its retirement.

The best-run sovereign wealth funds operate quietly in the background, compounding returns across decades. They buy stakes in infrastructure, real estate, technology companies, and resource projects around the world.

For example, Norway’s Government Pension Fund started with 2 billion NOK (approximately US$300 million to $320 million at the time) in May 1996. It has since grown to over $2.2 trillion US today.

The underlying logic is simple. A government with surplus capital can put it to work, just like any disciplined investor would. The returns benefit future generations, not just the current one.

Sovereign wealth fund funding

Here’s where it gets interesting.

Historically, sovereign wealth funds were built on budget surpluses and resource revenues. Norway’s fund, arguably the most successful in the world, was seeded entirely from oil revenues. Abu Dhabi’s was funded the same way.

The formula is straightforward: earn more than you spend, invest the surplus, and let compounding do the rest.

Most financial advisors or personal finance coaches would outline a similar playbook for building personal wealth:

Pay down non-business debt (consumer debt)
Invest the surplus
Compound wealth from investments

The keyword in step two is surplus.

Last time I checked, Canada has been running a budget deficit for around 10 years.

Source: Government of Canada

I find it a bit ironic to start a sovereign wealth fund while running a significant deficit. Can you imagine the famous personal finance personality Dave Ramsey telling his radio show listener:

“Don’t worry about paying down your debt. Start investing for your retirement.”

That’s not a wealth-building strategy. That’s a leveraged bet.

To be fair, not every sovereign wealth fund was launched from a position of surplus. Some governments chose to build their funds through borrowing or asset monetization. But those come with higher-risk.

Logic behind launching Canada’s sovereign wealth fund

Here’s where Carney lean into his investment banking background.

A sovereign wealth fund typically allocates majority capital into equity investments.

It invests as an owner, taking equity positions in projects and companies. That ownership stake is not just about returns. It’s also about what that ownership unlocks.

Using real estate investing as an example. A property investor puts in a 20% down payment, that’s the equity, and a bank lends the remaining 80%. The bank is willing to do this because real estate is considered low-risk collateral. The leverage amplifies the investor’s return on equity.

Now apply that same logic to a Government of Canada-backed sovereign wealth fund.

When the federal government is the equity owner of a project, banks and institutional lenders look at that investment very differently. The implied backing of a sovereign nation dramatically reduces perceived risk. That translates into lower borrowing costs, better terms, and higher leverage capacity.

This creates a situation where the equity returns out perform the underlying debt. Potentially resulting in a better outcome compared to managing personal finance and investments.

Carney spent years at Goldman Sachs and then the Bank of Canada and Bank of England. He understands capital structure better than most politician in the country. This announcement has his fingerprints all over it.

Whether it ultimately benefits Canadians depends on execution, investment discipline, and the kinds of projects the fund chooses to back.

That’s a different question.

I’m cautiously optimistic, however, I’m not oblivious by the fact that Government of Canada has made many poor investment decisions in the past.

Many due to political agenda over actual merits of investments.

If you like my work, I invite you to share it with others.

Thanks for reading EC Research Group - Empowering Busy Investors in 10 mins! This post is public so feel free to share it.

Eric Chang

Tokyo, Japan

April 28, 2026

We're now in a standoff

Eric Chang — Wed, 22 Apr 2026 23:55:28 GMT

For weeks, the media kept telling you the Strait of Hormuz was closed.

It wasn’t.

Historically, Iran has threatened to close the Strait during diplomatic tensions, conducting military exercises to demonstrate their ability to mine or block the narrow passage. That’s the playbook they’ve used in the past. Rattle the cage. Make headlines. Watch oil prices flinch.

But the reality this time was different.

Iran turned the Strait into a toll booth, charging select countries a reported $2 million per tanker to pass through. It was a shakedown, not a blockade. A “perceived closure” while the Strait technically stayed open-ish:

https://www.axios.com/2026/04/09/iran-us-strait-of-hormuz-khamenei

Now it’s the US’s turn. The US Navy is currently blockading the Strait of Hormuz.

That is a fundamentally different situation.

We moved from a managed disruption to an actual closure. And the numbers tell you exactly how much that matters.

A 10% reduction in world oil supply, which is roughly what the toll booth arrangement produced, was manageable. The IEA Member countries could have temporarily released 400 million barrels of oil reserves to cover it:

https://www.iea.org/news/iea-confirms-member-country-contributions-to-collective-action-to-release-oil-stocks-in-response-to-middle-east-disruptions

Now we’re looking at a 20 to 25% reduction in daily supply from the blockade standoff.

With global consumption estimated at 106 million barrels per day, that’s a shortfall of 21 to 27 million barrels every single day.

No country is going to deplete their entire strategic reserve to cover that.

Iran has the “upper hand” right now

Here’s what most of the media hasn’t told you.

The US and Trump set the deadline on the ceasefire. It was supposed to expire Wednesday, April 22.

Iran simply refused to show up. US Vice President JD Vance was supposed to be making his way to Pakistan for another round of negotiations. The Iranians ghosted him. No call. No meeting. No response.

When someone ghosts you, there’s only one interpretation: they are not interested.

Perhaps JD Vance hasn’t experienced modern dating.

The US has since backed off, claiming the ceasefire will extend indefinitely. Meanwhile, Trump continues posting on social media every day. The Iranians continue to give the cold shoulder.

One side is broadcasting. The other side isn’t listening.

So what happens next?

Contrary to the “unpredictable” persona Trump has cultivated, in some ways he is entirely predictable.

His patience has a short shelf life.

I believe he is buying time right now, specifically to allow more US troops and assets to position in the Middle East.

We wrote about the likelihood of a ground deployment here: https://www.ecresearchgroup.com/p/watch-what-they-do-not-what-they

His likely next target is Kharg Island.

Kharg handles roughly 90 percent of Iran’s crude exports. Trump has already dropped hints publicly:

“Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don’t. We have a lot of options.”
Source: https://www.cfr.org/articles/kharg-island-irans-oil-lifeline-and-a-tempting-u-s-target

That’s one way to get someone to call you back after being ghosted. Cut off the power and gas to their house.

What to do as investors?

I’m mostly sitting still.

We’ve been conditioned to believe that action creates results. That’s true for many situations:

Starting a business
Buying assets at depressed prices

But this moment is different.

The market has recovered at the fastest pace in 100 years. Meanwhile, the risks underneath this recovery are not decreasing.

They are increasing. Every week, the geopolitical picture gets more complicated. Every day the blockade continues, the supply math gets worse.

And yet, the market seems to have forgotten that risk exists.

That’s what a bubble feels like from the inside. Everything looks fine. Prices keep climbing. The situations are deteriorating, but the market shrugs. Until one day, it doesn’t.

A bubble gets its name for a reason. Eventually, it bursts.

For now, I am doing what many smart money is doing: holding an outsized position in cash and cash-like investments. Waiting for the market to finally catch up to reality.

Everything unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz only makes me more bullish on gold over the long term.

We are looking at higher inflation ahead.

We are looking at a potential slow down in global economy from oil supply constraint.

The disconnection between risk and reward won’t last forever. It never does.

If you like my work, I invite you to share it with others.

Thanks for reading EC Research Group - Empowering Busy Investors in 10 mins! This post is public so feel free to share it.

Eric Chang

Calgary, Alberta, Canada

April 22, 2026

Willing to miss out

Eric Chang — Wed, 15 Apr 2026 02:29:39 GMT

The stock market is now close to recovering to its previous all-time high.

For the past few weeks, I’ve been writing about the disconnect between reality and the stock market.

If anyone is keeping score, I’m getting a goose egg for anticipating a bigger market correction (15-20%) than what we’ve experienced since the start of the Iran-US-Israel war.

I’m not quite ready to throw in the towel yet.

Asymmetrical reward to risk

If you’ve been reading my newsletter for a while, you may know about my career in real estate.

When I meet new people, it’s easier to introduce myself as a real estate investor or developer.

After all, that’s what I’ve done over the past few years: develop infill multifamily buildings, acquire older real estate assets, and implement value-add strategies: Fix management. Bring rent on par with market. Renovate units to modernize them.

While those are visible from the outside, few people see the risk management work happening behind the scenes, as we dynamically adjust our strategies and approaches based on market conditions.

We aim to structure our real estate projects with an asymmetrical reward to risk profile.

What does asymmetrical reward to risk mean?

It means we’re looking for a combination of real estate asset, strategy, and market that gives us a higher potential return for the same amount of risk taken. Same construction build. Same price. But with a more favorable outcome over the holding period.

Here’s a real example.

We exited 3 projects over the past year. Two of those decisions came down to location.

We were monitoring new inventory being constructed in those neighborhoods. More supply creates future pressure on rent. More competition when those buildings complete.

We exited one project and rolled the capital into a different project in a superior neighborhood.

The cost of the build? The same.

But the premium neighborhood comes with higher lot prices, which naturally limits the number of new projects coming online over the next few years.

Because we rolled equity gains from the first project into the second, the higher lot premium didn’t change our total capital contribution.

With that maneuvering, we effectively lowered our risk while maintaining the same reward.

The reward: A multi-family asset that we anticipate to perform well over the 10 year hold period.

The risks: Anticipating a lower vacancy as there will be less comparable rental units competing for the same renters.

Same reward. Significantly lower risk.

That’s what asymmetrical reward to risk looks like for our investors.

Asymmetrical risk to reward

If you’ve been reading our recent newsletters, you know I’ve been extra cautious.

As a risk manager, my job is to identify potential risks and spot mispriced opportunities.

For every unit of risk we take on, I ask: what’s the associated payout?

When the downside risk to upside reward is highly unfavorable, we get conservative.

That’s exactly where I’ve been the past few weeks.

The downside risks have drastically increased since the war started. The upside reward remains relatively limited.

The upside for the global economy and stock market hasn’t changed.

The downside? There’s plenty.

Many traders are betting the war will be over soon. They’re buying up stocks. The result is a short-term short-covering rally, with hedge funds rushing in and the S&P 500 rocketing back close to its previous high.

Could this be an all-clear signal?

Possibly.

But I’d much rather wait for a bit more clarity before taking on more risk.

I’m not alone in this thinking. Famed hedge fund manager David Einhorn, who manages approximately $2.85 billion US in assets, recently wrote the following in his latest investor letter:

“It probably won’t surprise anyone that we are again putting capital preservation at the top of our priorities. With so little downside priced in, we are willing to risk missing out on a possible recovery to position ourselves to play more offense, should one of the downside scenarios materialize.”
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/14/david-einhorn-signals-caution-as-his-hedge-fund-greenlight-prioritizes-capital-protection.html

That phrase: willing to risk missing out.

That’s where I am right now.

Will I change my mind?

Absolutely.

When there’s more certainty on the war. Whether there’s a resolution or a clear path to ensuring oil supply won’t be disrupted.

If the market breaks out of its previous high and holds, my conservative thesis is no longer valid. I’ll adjust back to looking for the market to move higher instead of playing defense.

But for now, the short squeeze dynamic is worth understanding clearly. Here are two articles worth reading:

A short-covering rally has stocks on shaky footing. Here’s what could happen next:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-short-covering-rally-has-stocks-on-shaky-footing-heres-what-could-happen-next-33acd56d

Short Sellers Squeezed Hard as Avis Shares Rocket 150%:

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/short-sellers-squeezed-hard-avis-191835924.html

The second article is particularly interesting.

In an economy that’s slowing down with skyrocketing oil prices, does anyone genuinely believe more people will be booking rental cars?

I don’t think so.

Yet the stock has gone up more than 300% in the past month.

The risk manager in me is screaming:

Wowzers! Watch out!

I’m willing to miss a little upside to avoid getting caught in the downside.

If you like my work, I invite you to share it with others.

Thanks for reading EC Research Group - Empowering Busy Investors in 10 mins! This post is public so feel free to share it.

Eric Chang

Calgary, Alberta, Canada

April 14, 2026

Watch what they do, not what they say

Eric Chang — Tue, 07 Apr 2026 23:01:44 GMT

For years, my brother, father and myself would get into heated debates over just about everything.

You could say we know how to push each other’s buttons.

To outsiders, our family dynamic might look hostile.

But when it comes down to it, we would do anything for each other.

There’s usually a gap between what people say and what they do.

My family may say things to provoke each other, but our actions point in the complete opposite direction.

The same principle applies to how I watch markets and geopolitics.

Watch what they do, not what they say

Since Trump was re-elected, I’ve been paying increasing attention to what he does versus what he says.

I came across this interview with Firas Maksad of the Eurasia Group on CNBC that laid out what he sees Trump’s next move in Iran:

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/04/02/president-trump-may-try-to-take-control-of-irans-oil-in-mid-april-eurasia-groups-firas-maksad.html

The core of Maksad’s argument, at the 2:45 mark:

Every time the President has chosen to deploy military assets, whether it was in the 12 day war against Iran some year and half ago, or whether it was against Muduro in Venezuela and the lead up to this war, he’s actually use those military assets once they’re in theater.

And on how to interpret the administration’s mixed signals:

There’s a clear discernible strategy here in terms of communication. […] I think it’s in the interest of the administration to try and manage oil prices, manage the markets, keep them under control in order to prosecute this war longer and further degrade Iran’s military capabilities. So if we see a lot of back and forth in terms of the administration’s signalling, it’s part of that strategy of actually trying to manage the markets. It’s not necessarily indicative of where the President is going. I’m watching the military deployment much closer than I’m actually watching and indexing what the President is saying.

That last line is the one to take point.

Watch the troops. Not the tweets.

Tonight at 8pm Eastern

Source: Google Maps

I believe the United States will try to buy time by either doing small scale bombings or making claims that Iranians are negotiating and push for a delay for another week.

This is all in preparation for a ground invasion.

In the same interview, Maksad noted that most US troops en route will arrive mid-April.

That timeline matters.

I’m watching for increased market volatility reflecting further stress and fear from investors.

As of now, it is hard to believe a conflict of this scale has not already had a more visible impact on financial markets. Historically, it would have.

We wrote about the importance of holding more liquidity during moments exactly like this one:

https://www.ecresearchgroup.com/p/do-these-when-the-market-feels-overwhelming

https://www.ecresearchgroup.com/p/cash-is-trash-but-liquidity-is-king

45% in highly liquid cash-like positions

Lance Roberts, Chief Investment Strategist at RIA Advisors, manages over $1 billion in assets under management.

In a recent interview, he shared that one of their model portfolios is currently positioned as follows:

20% cash
25% short-term treasuries

You can watch the part he talks about their liquid positions in the interview here:

https://youtu.be/37Sjc0OXKKw?si=47XkYIvWcBNm9kAe&t=4793

Combined, that’s 45% in highly liquid, capital-preserving positions.

This is not a retail investor hiding under the mattress.

This is a professional with over a billion dollars at stake, choosing patience over risk.

That choice speaks louder than any pundits on financial media.

Again, watch what they do, not what they say.

If you like my work, I invite you to share it with others.

Thanks for reading EC Research Group - Empowering Busy Investors in 10 mins! This post is public so feel free to share it.

Eric Chang

Calgary, Alberta, Canada

April 7, 2026

Do these when the market feels overwhelming

Eric Chang — Tue, 31 Mar 2026 23:21:22 GMT

“Dow surges 1,100 points, S&P 500 posts best day since May as hopes grow for end of Iran war”

That’s the headline on CNBC today.

A nice big UP day after being down for most of last week and the month of March.

If the market is giving you motion sickness, I hate to be the bearer of bad news:

It’s not over yet. Better get used to it.

I grew up in an emotionally unstable environment

It’s hard to explain to people who don’t know what that environment is like.

The closest example may be the Hispanic soap drama.

Yes, TV shows are dramatized. But the reality of my upbringing isn’t far behind.

What does that have to do with investing?

I consider it my training ground.

That environment prepared me for the ups and downs of emotions. It helped me develop a wider emotional range than most people.

And more importantly, it taught me how to detach emotion from fact.

How to make difficult decisions while keeping the noise at bay.

That skill is worth more than any asset itself.

A common response to dramatic emotions

Most people are familiar with the fight or flight response.

Something sudden happens. The body reacts.

But there’s a third response that rarely gets talked about. And in my experience, it’s the silent destroyer of wealth:

Freeze.

Based on my observations of many investors over the years, freezing can be just as dangerous as panic selling.

Now, to be clear: this is not about right or wrong.

We don’t truly know how we’ll respond to any situation until we’re in it.

I’d love to proclaim I’m immune to freezing. I’m not. I’ve experienced it myself.

But awareness is the first step.

If you’re feeling paralyzed by the current market conditions, here are two tips from my own hard-earned lessons.

Tip #1: When you notice you’re frozen, consider this action

Take some capital off the table, for now.

Most investors get paralyzed by the binary: buy or sell.

When the information is overwhelming and the emotions are running hot, freezing becomes the brain’s way of coping. A way to defer the decision until later.

The problem?

The market doesn’t wait.

And that delay is often what does the most damage to a portfolio.

The shift I’d invite you to make: move away from “all or nothing” thinking toward “making room and slowing down.”

Instead of forcing yourself to decide right now whether to sell an investment, consider selling a smaller portion.

Professionals call this raising cash.

Taking some capital off the table, or selling a small % of portfolio to “raise cash,” it gives us room to breathe and allow the logical part of our brain to kick in.

We wrote about how powerful liquidity is during times of volatility. You can read it here: https://www.ecresearchgroup.com/p/cash-is-trash-but-liquidity-is-king

There’s a lot of psychology behind why we get stuck between buying and selling. Our own minds work against us.

But once you know what’s happening, you can sidestep the default programming.

Taking even a small amount off the table gives us room to breathe. It allows the logical part of our brain to re-engage.

Tip #2: Ask yourself this one question

Once you have some breathing room, once the limbic system has had a moment to reach homeostasis, the frontal lobe can do its job again.

That’s when I ask myself one important question:

Would I invest in this today, given everything I know right now?

Simple. Powerful. Often uncomfortable.

Because here’s the trap most people fall into: sunk cost fallacy.

The sunk cost fallacy is the irrational tendency to hold an investment based on how much time, money, or effort you’ve already put in, rather than its current merits.

It’s the “I can’t sell now, I’m already down” thinking that keeps people holding bad positions far too long.

Asking “would I invest today?” cuts through all of that.

It resets the question to what actually matters: the present reality, not the past decision.

Fair warning: you may not like the answer.

But that’s usually exactly the answer your portfolio needs.

Have you noticed your emotions with your investments lately?

It’s worth reflecting on.

Investing is emotional for most people. Because money is emotional for most people.

But it doesn’t have to be.

Money is a tool. It’s energy. It moves.

And the investors who can observe their emotions without being controlled by them, those are the ones who act when others freeze.

If you’ve been feeling the weight of this market lately, I hope these two tips give you something to work with.

The volatility isn’t going away.

But your response to it? That’s something you can train.

If you like my work, I invite you to share it with others.

Thanks for reading EC Research Group - Empowering Busy Investors in 10 mins! This post is public so feel free to share it.

Eric Chang

Calgary, Alberta, Canada

March 31, 2026

139 Canadians per Federal Employee

Eric Chang — Wed, 25 Mar 2026 01:15:16 GMT

Taking a break from the Middle East this week and back to Canada.

The Federal government has recently released its plan on public service job cuts across departments.

According to BNN Bloomberg:

The Canada Strong Budget 2025, released in November, outlined a plan to reduce the size of the federal public service by 28,000 positions by 2029, including 16,000 full-time equivalent (FTE) positions eliminated.
Nearly 15,000 full-time equivalent positions will be cut in federal departments over the next three years, as part of the federal government’s plan to find $60 billion in savings by 2029.
Source: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/2026/03/23/heres-where-15000-federal-public-service-jobs-will-be-cut-over-3-years/

We wrote about the “good times” won’t last

About a year and a half ago, we wrote about the dramatic increase of Federal employees over the past decade.

This chart showed the trend:

Source: The Hub

You can read it here: https://www.ecresearchgroup.com/p/reading-tealeaves

That bloat was one of the biggest driving forces behind the real estate gains in cities like Ottawa for many years.

We predicted the tailwind would end with a change of government.

We anticipated a different government in Ottawa at the time.

But when the problem of a bloated government becomes large enough, not even the Carney government can look the other way.

Well operated businesses monitor their KPIs

Peter Drucker, the father of modern management, once said:

What gets measured gets improved.

KPIs, or Key Performance Indicators, are simple tools with a profound impact on any organization or individual seeking to make progress.

A health coach would encourage their clients to track their sleep, diet, and exercise.

A financial advisor would help their clients track their total debt, income, net worth, and annual portfolio returns.

As citizens, we should expect the same discipline from the people spending our tax dollars.

Unfortunately, few governments or leaders want to be measured against anything that holds them accountable.

Since they are not going to do it for you, I will introduce one simple KPI worth tracking.

139 Canadians per Federal Employee

The metric is simple:

The number of Canadians for every Federal employee.

The lower the ratio, the less efficient the government.

It means it takes more Federal employees to provide services for the citizens.

On the other hand:

The higher the ratio, the more efficient.

139.

That is the number to remember.

Between 2015 and 2017, the Canadian Federal government was able to function effectively with 139 Canadians for every single Federal employee.

Since then, the efficiency has quietly collapsed.

The ratio fell from 139 all the way down to 111.

A 20% decline in efficiency, with no measurable improvement in the quality of life for Canadians.

I put together a table illustrating what a bloated government looks like from the lens of Federal payroll numbers:

Think about that for a moment.

More employees.

Bigger government.

Larger deficits.

And the average Canadian is no better off than we were in 2015.

Trending in the right direction

By 2029, the Federal government is projecting a reduction of 28,000 employees from the payroll.

Accounting for slower population growth, the ratio could improve to approximately 129 Canadians per Federal employee.

Still short of the 2015 benchmark at 139.

But at least the trend is finally moving in the right direction.

Here is an interesting data point for comparison.

The United States government operates with 2.4 million Federal employees serving a population of 342 million.

That puts the American citizen to Federal employee ratio at 143.

In other words, the US Federal government currently runs more lean than Canada does, significantly more.

That should give every Canadian taxpayer pause.

The cuts being announced are a step in the right direction.

But a step is not a destination.

139 is the number we want back.

Watch it closely.

Better yet, forward this newsletter to your MPs.

Hold them accountable.

Until we get back to 139.

If you like my work, I invite you to share it with others.

Thanks for reading EC Research Group - Empowering Busy Investors in 10 mins! This post is public so feel free to share it.

Eric Chang

Calgary, Alberta, Canada

March 24, 2026

A 3 Trillion Dollar bounced check

Eric Chang — Tue, 17 Mar 2026 23:24:03 GMT

As we enter the third week of the US-Israel-Iran war, one question remains unanswered:

What exactly is the objective?

Is it handicapping Iran’s military? Is it destroying Iran’s nuclear capability? Is it locating enriched uranium and removing it from the country? Is it regime change?

Nobody seems to know.

If you’re wondering, you’re not alone.

Google searches such as “why is us at war with Iran” or “why are we at war with Iran” popped up as popular searches on Google US website:

Image Credit: Google Trends

While the US and Israel appear to be winning on the battlefield, the Iranian regime has quietly opened a second front.

The IRGC (The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) understands something the White House or Pentagon may not:

You don’t beat the US military by fighting it directly.

You beat it by hitting where it hurts most: the November US midterm election.

Destroy the world’s economy. Force Trump’s hand. Let the American voter do the rest.

Unlike the US, which runs on democracy, Iran operates under strict authoritarian rule. Iranian citizens may endure a harsh standard of living against their will. Americans have no such patience.

Especially when gas prices start climbing at the pump.

The biggest irony in all of this?

No one knows what the US is trying to accomplish in Iran.

Meanwhile, Iran’s objective couldn’t be clearer:

Disrupt the world economy. Force Trump’s hand.

The market doesn’t seem to care

The Iran conflict is the most serious military engagement the United States has entered since the Iraq War in 2003.

Oil prices spiked overnight.

Yet if you check your stock portfolio this morning, you’d barely notice anything happened.

Doesn’t that strike you as strange?

A war of this scale, one escalating from military strikes to full economic warfare, the S&P 500 has “only” dropped 4.7%?

As someone who studies patterns and connects dots for a living, this kind of behavior gets my attention immediately.

When something stops acting “normal,” I lean in.

Because in my experience, the market doesn’t ignore reality forever.

It just delays the reaction, and then overreacts all at once.

A less reported war

The Iraq War happened when I was much younger, more than 20 years ago.

I don’t remember all the details.

What I do remember is the media coverage.

The footage. The constant updates. The sense that the whole world was watching.

Contrast that to today.

Iran is currently under a complete internet blackout. The Iranian regime is suppressing coverage while top government leaders are being eliminated by airstrikes.

At the same time, Iran is executing what I’d call a chaos strategy - a deliberate attempt to destabilize the world’s and the Gulf’s economy.

By firing missiles into Dubai, Iran didn’t go after oil.

They went after something far more valuable to the UAE (United Arab Emirates).

90% of their population

So far, have you noticed how little footage we’ve seen from Dubai?

There’s a reason for that.

Dubai is now charging tourists for filming Iranian missile strikes. According to a recent report from The Guardian, a British tourist was among 20 people charged over videos documenting the attacks:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/12/british-tourist-among-20-charged-in-dubai-over-videos-of-iranian-missile-strikes

The UAE government is deeply concerned about one thing above all else:

Fear spreading.

And people packing their bags.

Here’s what most people may not know about Dubai:

Around 90% of its population are foreigners. That’s over 10 million expats living and spending in the country.

Many wealthy expats have been scrambling to leave the country.

In private jet charter groups, messages were circulating during the early days of the conflict:

Even if only a fraction of these expats taking a break from Dubai, the economic impact would be significant.

Wealthy expats don’t just take their luggage with them.

They take their spending. Their businesses. And most importantly, their capital elsewhere.

A 3 Trillion Dollar bounced check

Here’s where this story gets interesting for investors.

The Gulf countries have been significant investors in the United States for decades, to the tune of approximately $2 trillion.

The six Gulf countries’ eleven sovereign wealth funds invest about $2 trillion in the U.S, which is over 35% of their total assets under management. Thse countries invest in U.S. stocks, bonds, alternative investments such as hedge funds, real estate, and infrastructure. Over 25% of the total Gulf investments in the U.S. are in equities and about 17% are in fixed income products, especially U.S. Treasuries.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/mayrarodriguezvalladares/2026/03/07/should-we-worry-about-gulf-countries-reducing-investments-in-the-us/

That’s an enormous anchor of capital supporting American markets and financial assets.

But the bigger number isn’t the $2 trillion already invested.

It’s the $3 trillion in future commitments that Trump celebrated as one of his signature deals.

You have to give it to Trump, he is a deal maker.

But anyone who has done a lot of deals knows one simple truth:

No deal is final until the money is in the bank.

If Iran’s chaos strategy continues to rattle the Middle East, and more expats begin leaving, the Gulf countries may find themselves urgently focused on stabilizing their own domestic economies before writing checks to America.

From the same Forbes article:
Where Gulf countries have more influence is in threatening not to buy anymore U.S. stocks and bonds and in canceling the $3 trillion investment commitments they promised last year. If Gulf sovereign wealth funds were to undertake such actions, they would be signaling to the world that they are prepared to use their investment muscle to push the U.S. and Israel to end the Iranian conflict.

That $3 trillion check?

It may bounce before it’s ever cashed.

There will be damage to the economy

Just because we don’t see or hear about the war as much, it doesn’t mean it’s not happening.

Iran’s chaos strategy is running in the background: quiet, deliberate, and patient.

The disconnect between what markets are pricing in and the real economic damage being done by this conflict means only one thing:

When most investors finally wake up to the reality, they will be caught off guard.

And when they rush for the exits, all at once, the market will move fast.

This war is far from over.

Even if the military conflict ends in the coming weeks, the economic war could continue for months.

We’ve written before about the importance of liquidity. About keeping dry powder ready not because you’re fearful, but because you’re strategic.

This is exactly the kind of environment that rewards patience.

The investors who hold liquidity today will be the ones positioned to find genuine value in the months ahead.

When others are forced to sell, you want to be the one ready to buy.

The market may not be paying attention right now.

But the smart money is watching closely.

Are you?

If you like my work, I invite you to share it with others.

Thanks for reading EC Research Group - Empowering Busy Investors in 10 mins! This post is public so feel free to share it.

Eric Chang

Cardston, Alberta, Canada

March 17, 2026

Bonds quit working

Eric Chang — Wed, 11 Mar 2026 02:41:10 GMT

A bit of delay in publishing today’s newsletter.

I had a packed schedule of meetings today.

One of the meetings, was with a Financial Advisor of 21 years.

He started in this business when he was 26 years old!

Before selling his practice last year, he was managing over $140 million USD in AUM.

For those unfamiliar with the term, AUM stands for Assets Under Management.

We connected over our shared views.

Both of us are seeing the same thing:

Investors today are taking on enormous risks.

Many of them without realizing it.

Who can blame them?

For the past 17 years, the market has mostly gone in one direction:

Up. Up. Up.

Many younger Millennials, and older Gen Zs have never seen a market crash before.

How would anyone believe in Unicorn if they have never seen one before?

During our chat, the Advisor said something I’ve heard from many professional Money Managers lately:

“I’ve seen this movie before.”

Many investors were raised on the 60/40 portfolio

For decades, investors were taught a simple model:

The 60/40 portfolio.

60% stocks.

40% Bonds.

Simple. Reliable. Effective.

For around 40 years, it worked beautifully.

But there was an important reason why:

The rule never changed.

From the early 1980s until 2020, the global economy experienced one of the biggest trends in financial history:

Falling interest rates.

A quick refresher:

Bond prices and interest rates have an inverse relationship.

When interest rates go down, Bond prices go up.

When interest rates go up, Bond prices go down.

In the early 1980s, interest rates were at historic highs.

Since then, they have mostly moved downward for four decades.

That meant Bond prices were rising for nearly 40 years.

Image Credit: Lysander Funds

No wonder Bonds worked so well.

They weren’t just defensive. They were also profitable.

Then COVID happened and everything changed.

Governments around the world did something unprecedented during COVID.

They took on more debt in a few short years than they had accumulated over decades, even centuries.

Take the United States as an example.

The national debt exploded during the pandemic.

In fact, the increase almost doubled during COVID than the entire 250 years since the country’s independence.

Image Credit: Wolf Street

Governments worldwide accomplished this by printing money.

An insane amount.

But money printing never disappears quietly.

All that cash eventually shows up somewhere.

Most often, it appears in its ugliest form:

Inflation.

COVID flipped the old playbook on its head.

The rules have changed.

And whenever the structure of the economy changes, we have to throw out the previous playbook.

That’s uncomfortable.

Especially when it comes to our wealth.

“We’ll be fine”

There’s a story from the book “Losing the Signal: The Untold Story Behind the Extraordinary Rise and Spectacular Fall of BlackBerry.”

After Apple introduced the iPhone to the world, the next day, BlackBerry (Research In Motion) co-CEO Mike Lazaridis pulled his partner Jim Balsillie in front of a computer.

“Jim, I want you to watch this,” he said, pointing to a webcast of the iPhone unveiling.
[…]
“These guys are really, really good,” Mr. Lazaridis replied. “This is different.”
“It’s OK—we’ll be fine,” Mr. Balsillie responded.

“We’ll be fine.”

Those words would later haunt the company.

Within a few short years, BlackBerry went from market dominance to irrelevance.

Why?

Because they assumed the old rules still applied.

They didn’t.

The world had changed.

And they didn’t adapt fast enough.

The conversation with the former $140M advisor reminded me of that story.

He believes Bonds are no longer serving investors the way they had in the past.

Within the next few years, the classic 60/40 portfolio could slowly fade away.

“We’ll be fine.”

It’s a movie we’ve seen before.

Massive Government Deficits

During this interview, Louis Gave of Gavekal Research pointed out why he also believes The 60/40 Portfolio Is Dead.

The world’s largest economies are running massive budget deficits while economies aren’t in a severe recessions or major conflicts.

China, for example, is running a deficit around 10% of GDP.

The United States is running deficits around 6% of GDP.

European economies are largely between 2% and 4.5%.

Japan continues to expand fiscal spending aggressively.

Across the world, governments are stepping on the same gas paddle:

More and more fiscal stimulus.

When governments spend at these levels while central banks maintain loose monetary policy, it creates higher inflation.

And inflation quietly erodes the real value of fixed-income assets.

In other words:

Bonds.

In an environment like this, Bonds may no longer function the way investors expect them to.

The policy environment has shifted toward something far more inflationary.

And that changes the rules of the game.

Bonds are no longer protecting against stock declines

The beauty of the 60/40 portfolio was its simplicity.

When stocks fell during economic uncertainty, Bonds usually rose.

Investors usually sell higher risk assets such as stocks and move capital into less volatile assets such as Bonds.

The two assets moved in opposite directions.

That meant investors could rebalance periodically and enjoy stable returns.

Gave called it:

“Rebalance every quarter and go to the beach.”

It worked for decades.

But that relationship breaks down during “energy shock” or an inflationary regime change.

A perfect example happened in 2022.

When Russia invaded Ukraine, energy prices surged.

Oil skyrocketed.

Inflation fears crept into the market.

And suddenly, something unusual happened:

Stocks fell.

Bonds fell too.

The diversification benefit disappeared.

Instead of protecting portfolios against stocks decline, Bonds joined the decline.

Investors had nowhere to hide under the 60/40 portfolio.

Over the past week, we’ve seen this script played out again with the war with Iran:

Stocks struggled.

But Bonds also dropped.

For investors relying on the classic 60/40 model, the protection wasn’t there.

Rules are changing

Markets evolve.

Economic climate change.

Investment strategies that worked for decades can suddenly stop working.

The investors who thrive are not the ones who cling to the past.

They are the ones who recognize when the wind changes direction and adjust their sails accordingly.

Or as we said this many times before:

Skate to where the puck is going, not where it has been.

Because when the rules change, the old playbook stops working.

And those who fail to adapt often learn the lesson the hard way.

If you like my work, I invite you to share it with others.

Thanks for reading EC Research Group - Empowering Busy Investors in 10 mins! This post is public so feel free to share it.

Eric Chang

Edmonton, Alberta, Canada

March 10, 2026

Middle East is complicated, Alberta is not

Eric Chang — Wed, 04 Mar 2026 00:01:23 GMT

Over the weekend, the United States and Israel went to war with Iran.

It did not take long before Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, was killed in an airstrike.

Based on recent reports, the U.S. and Israel are close to achieving air superiority.

On the surface, it looks decisive.

It even feels like this conflict could end in a matter of weeks.

But if history has taught us anything, especially in the Middle East, it is this:

The opening chapter of a war often looks nothing like the ending.

Ryan Bohl, a geopolitical analyst, suggests the war may only be beginning.

And if he is right, this could turn into something far more prolonged than the headlines imply.

Removing Iran’s Supreme Leader won’t matter

The instinctive belief is simple:

Remove the head, and the body collapses.

That logic works in personalized regimes such as Saddam Hussein’s Iraq.

But Iran is structured differently.

The Islamic Republic operates through an ideological and institutional framework that is far more resilient than a single individual.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has long operated with decentralized command authority. Local commanders are not waiting for instructions from the very top to retaliate. Their marching orders are embedded in doctrine.

In addition, there are no visible signs of mass military defections. No broad popular uprising. No structural fracture.

In other words:

Decapitation does not equal collapse.

This is not a personality driven regime.

It is an ideological machine.

And machines, once built, keep running.

Difference between achieving air superiority vs. ground operations

There is a massive gap between dominating the skies and winning a war.

Air superiority weakens infrastructure.

It destroys air defenses and it cripples logistics.

But it does not eliminate countless missile launchers hidden in mountains.

It also does not erase the drone networks.

Iran’s ballistic missile and drone programs are decentralized and dispersed.

Achieving control of the air does not automatically neutralize those threats.

To truly dismantle a hardened regime often requires boots on the ground.

Iran is not a small country.

It is a mountainous nation of roughly 90 million people, with difficult terrain and a population conditioned by decades of sanctions and confrontation.

A ground invasion would not be a short campaign.

It would mean climbing literal mountains.

Urban warfare in dense cities.

Supply lines stretched across hostile geography.

A movie we’ve seen before: Operation Enduring Freedom

After the attacks of September 11, 2001, the United States launched Operation Enduring Freedom.

The objective was clear:

Dismantle al Qaeda.

Remove the Taliban regime that sheltered them.

The Taliban government fell within weeks, major cities were under U.S. backed control.

The initial campaign was a Shock and Awe.

The United States military is extraordinarily effective at this type of war.

Rapid dominance, technological superiority, overwhelming force.

There is no debate about capability.

The U.S. possesses the most powerful military on Earth.

But power does not equal to victory.

Because winning depends on the rules of the game.

And in the Middle East, they play a very different game.

Playing the long game

What began in Afghanistan as counter terrorism slowly evolved into counter insurgency and nation building.

The mission shifted.

From eliminating Osama bin Laden, to rebuilding a centralized state in Kabul, to constructing a Western style democracy.

By the time the final U.S. aircraft departed Kabul in August 2021, the numbers told a sobering story:

Total Financial Cost: $2.3 Trillion including interest and veteran care.
U.S. Military Fatalities: 2,448.
Afghan Civilian Deaths: 46,000+.
Afghan Security Forces Deaths: 66,000+.
Duration: 19 years, 10 months.

Today, the Taliban is back in power, governing with the same fundamentalist ideology they held in the 1990s, by playing the long game.

We’re not clear on U.S. objectives

This is perhaps the most critical question right now.

What is the objective?

Is it eliminating Iran’s nuclear capability?
Is it regime change?
Is it strategic signaling toward Russia in Ukraine, or toward China regarding Taiwan?

Perhaps Trump is intentionally being unclear to give him strategic flexibility to navigate a rapidly evolving situation.

But flexibility can also blur accountability.

If the objective expands, the timeline will extend.

Alberta’s oil becomes more important

Whenever Middle Eastern conflict escalates, global energy market reacts.

Supply uncertainty pushes prices higher.

And when supply chains become fragile, proximity and reliability becomes more important.

Alberta sits on one of the largest proven oil reserves in the world.

Image Credit: Wikipedia

In a prolonged conflict scenario:

Alberta becomes a stabilizing energy supplier
North American energy security becomes strategic leverage
Canada’s negotiating position in upcoming trade discussions strengthens

If this conflict drags on for months, or longer, Alberta may find itself in the driver’s seat because of stability.

If you like my work, I invite you to share it with others.

Thanks for reading EC Research Group - Empowering Busy Investors in 10 mins! This post is public so feel free to share it.

Eric Chang

Calgary, Alberta, Canada

March 3, 2026

5 tectonic shifts in 2026

Eric Chang — Wed, 25 Feb 2026 00:00:14 GMT

Every year, I look for the big waves.

Not the short term noise.

Not the attention grabbing headlines.

The big structural changes.

Because when tectonic plates shift, the economy and markets move with them.

Using surfing as an analogy, there are always 2 sides to a big wave:

A complete wipe out, or, when one catches the right wave, you take off.

Applying this to investing and managing a portfolio:

Fortunes are made on one side of the wave, and lost on the other.

Historically, it’s normal to experience 1 big wave once every few years.

This year, I’ve identified 5 major waves or “tectonic shifts” that are currently underway.

1. The K-shaped economy is becoming the new economy

The K-shaped economy is no longer a phenomenon. It is becoming the economic system of both the United States and Canada.

In the US today, 50 percent of consumer spending is driven by just 10 percent of the population.

Half the spending.

From one tenth of the people.

Meanwhile in Canada, albeit at a less degree, the trend is trending toward the US, with the pandemic accelerating the recent trend.

Statistics Canada finds that the top 20% of Canadian income earners account for 31% of total household spending, while the share of Disposable Income jumped significantly higher during the pandemic.

Asset owners have benefited from rising real estate prices, equity markets, owning businesses and even gold. Meanwhile, many middle class households are stretched by housing costs, debt, and stagnant purchasing power.

The US is simply further ahead on this curve.

Canada is playing catch up.

In both countries, asset inflation has rewarded those who own financial and real assets. Those without assets are relying solely on wages, and wages are not increasing at the same pace.

For our portfolio, the implications are clear:

Asset ownership remains critical
Exposure to quality equities and real assets continues to matter
The middle class squeeze is structural, not cyclical

The K-shaped economy is not a temporary phenomenon, it is becoming the new normal.

Over the coming years, the middle class is quickly disappearing.

Coming from a middle class family, this is sobering for me to write.

2. Stablecoins - The best gift from the blockchain technology

There has been rampant speculation and reckless gambling in the crypto space for many years.

Every time someone mentioned meme coins as assets, I cringe.

While I believe most meme coins have little value, a real, legitimate use case of crypto technology has been quietly taking over the world.

Most people still think of Visa, MasterCard, and Amex when they think of payments.

But as of 2024, Stablecoins have outpaced Visa as the number one transaction payment processor in the world!

Processing roughly 16 trillion dollars in volume.

This is not a small shift.

This is a tectonic shift.

A Stablecoin is a cryptocurrency tied to a stable asset such as the US dollar or gold, using blockchain technology but without the volatility of Bitcoin.

Adoption is accelerating globally, especially outside North America. As usage grows:

More capital flows into assets backing Stablecoins, such as US Treasuries or gold
Traditional remittance and payment businesses are facing real competitions
Bitcoin’s dominance may weaken as Stablecoins being used for every day transactions

If you own payment companies, understand the disruption risk.

If you own Bitcoin, understand the competitive landscape is evolving.

The part that may be surprising many North American investors:

The wave is already here.

3. The GLP-1 economy

Most people think GLP-1 is just a weight loss drug.

It is much bigger than that.

US obesity rates have climbed from roughly 30 percent in the early 2000s to 42 percent around 2020. Even childhood obesity has surged toward 20 percent.

Now, one in eight US adults is taking a GLP-1 drug.

The drug is reaching mass adoption rapidly.

What’s most interesting about GLP-1 drugs is the impact on the rewards circuitry in our brain.

That means, many of the addictive behaviors will now be better regulated while on the medication.

This is similar to when smartphones reshaped communication. The direct impact is straight forward: convenience, accessibility.

However, the second and third order effects are where they’re not as obvious, such as:

The boom of ride share companies such as Uber, or impact to interpersonal relationship.

Here’s what we will be watching:

Restaurants
Airline profits
Gym / wellness
Plastic surgery
Companies exposed to declining consumption patterns
Productivity and labor participation

This is not a diet fad. It is a structural health and economic shift reversing years of health trend.

4. White collar recession, blue collar boom in the AI economy

AI is reshaping the labor market in real time.

White collar job openings in areas such as software development, business analysis, and data roles have all dropped significantly, in many cases by nearly two times.

At the same time:

Healthcare added 82,000 jobs
Social assistance added 42,000
Construction added 33,000

Blue collar is winning in the current AI economy.

White collar wages have plateaued and are starting to decline. Long term wage deflation in certain knowledge based roles is a real possibility.

For the first time in history, knowledge is becoming cheaper, not more valuable, because AI can replicate many tasks that used to require a university degree.

That is a profound shift.

Implications for investors:

Real estate in traditionally white collar neighborhoods may face pressure.
Blue collar regions tied to construction, infrastructure, and healthcare will be seeing tailwinds.

The modern society as we know it will be changed forever.

5. The rise of teenage millionaires and soon billionaires

We are entering an era where teenagers are building seven to eight figure net worths.

We are already seeing teenager such as Ryan Kaji with an estimated net worth between 100 to 130 million dollars through platforms like YouTube.

Top creators on platforms such as Roblox are earning on average 23 million dollars per year, many of them from Gen Alpha and Gen Z .

We have also seen the emergence of extremely young self made billionaires in their 20s.

Digital platforms have removed gatekeepers.

Distribution is global.

Capital formation is faster than ever.

This is another major structural change to our society that will be new to all of us.

For families, this changes parenting.

For investors, this changes where value is created.

The next generation will not build wealth the same way previous generations did.

They will build it online with AI.

At speed.

At scale.

I believe the future will be an exciting place for those who are prepared

It may feel overwhelming in the moment while we’re transitioning into a new reality.

Throughout history, we have seen a future that is better than the past.

In a few years, extreme poverty is projected to be eliminated from our awareness.

Life expectancy is expected to increase as health care continue to innovate with AI.

My intention of sharing these “tectonic shifts” with you is simple:

To help you be aware of what’s appearing on the horizon and capitalize the opportunities that await us.

You can still catch the replay of my 2026 Economy and Market Predictions until the end of February:

https://2026predictions.fromericchang.com/

If you like my work, I invite you to share it with others.

Thanks for reading EC Research Group - Empowering Busy Investors in 10 mins! This post is public so feel free to share it.

Eric Chang

Cardston, Alberta, Canada

February 24, 2026

The election year playbook

Eric Chang — Wed, 18 Feb 2026 00:17:29 GMT

If you’ve followed markets long enough, you start to notice patterns.

Not headlines.
Not narratives.
Patterns.

One of the most reliable patterns in modern markets?

Election years come with stimulus.

And 2026 is no exception.

In fact, based on what we presented during our 2026 Economy & Market Predictions webinar, this may be one of the most aggressive stimulus we’ve seen in years.

Let’s break down the playbook from the current US administration.

Governments don’t like recessions before elections

This isn’t political.

It’s the effect of the US democracy.

When American voters go to the polls in November, whichever Party is in power want:

Good GDP
Rising asset prices
Stable job numbers
Lower prices on everyday expenses
Confident consumers

One way to check off as many boxes above as possible, is through stimulus.

Today, the favorite tool in the toolbox is:

Deficit spending.

The first lever: Bigger tax refunds

Source: Apollo

As suggested by the Congressional Budget Office, a nonpartisan agency, the “One Big Beautiful Bill” passed last year is projected to add roughly 0.9% to the GDP in 2026.

That’s enormous.

Goldman Sachs foretasted a 2.5% GDP growth for the US in 2026.

Almost 1% of that is being engineered through the tax policy.

Even more interesting?

The bulk of the stimulus will flow through in Q2 and Q3.

Right before midterms.

Coincidence?

Not at all.

It’s by design.

The second lever: Direct checks

There has been discussion of $2,000 per person stimulus payments funded through tariff collections.

A family of four could receive $8,000.

The administration is currently waiting on the US Supreme Court to rule on the legitimacy of the tariffs.

Even if the Court ruled against the administration, there will likely be tariff refunds and the tariff reversal would still push money back into the economy.

And when money enters the system quickly, it creates a temporary “wealth effect”.

The sudden influx of cash could flow into:

Consumption
Assets
Markets
Speculation

We saw this during COVID when the massive stimulus causing housing prices to skyrocket, rampant speculation into meme stocks, and overall stock market rose to record high.

The third lever: Interest rates

Normally, interest rate cuts only happen during recessions.

This cycle is different.

Government debt levels are so high that keeping rates elevated for too long becomes financially destructive.

It’s highly unusual to see rate cuts while the economy is still expanding.

But I believe it will happen this year.

Unfortunately, every time the politician has taken action to “help the little guys”, it usually hurting the very people they claimed to help.

While these short term stimulus may improve the mood of the voters going into November midterm election, the bulk of the stimulus will end up in the select few: the ones who own assets.

Big picture trend matters more than short term volatility

During the 2026 Economy and Market Predictions webinar, we discussed several major market trends that could fundamentally change the world as we know it.

We will be covering those “tectonic shifts” in our future newsletters.

In the mean time, if you are interested in catching the replay of the webinar, reply to this newsletter to request the link.

If you like my work, I invite you to share it with others.

Thanks for reading EC Research Group - Empowering Busy Investors in 10 mins! This post is public so feel free to share it.

Eric Chang

Cardston, Alberta, Canada

February 17, 2026

Alberta's boom for the next 10 years

Eric Chang — Wed, 11 Feb 2026 00:00:36 GMT

On February 12, we’ll be releasing my 2026 Economy & Market Predictions. You can register with this link below:

https://luma.com/3w8rdwj9

If you have been reading our newsletter for a while, you will remember we started this newsletter under the name Why Alberta Now.

I started the newsletter with a very specific intention.

I wanted to track what I believed was an upcoming boom in Alberta’s economy and real estate markets.

About a year into writing, I realized something.

A newsletter centered only around Alberta was becoming too limiting.

Personally, I am a macro guy.

I have a deep interest in geopolitics, the global economy, and the big trends forming quietly on the horizon. Connecting the dots, spotting patterns early, and understanding where the world is heading before most people see it, that is what excites me.

That same passion is what led me to hosting my annual Market and Economy Predictions.

If you are interested, we are hosting two sessions this week.

You can check them out here:
https://luma.com/3w8rdwj9

Today, let’s revisit the case for investing in Alberta.

It has been a while since I wrote specifically about Alberta.

A quick introduction if you are new to our newsletter

Hi there, I’m Eric.

One of my businesses is in real estate asset management, focused primarily on the Alberta market.

We currently own and operate real estate in three different cities across Alberta.

Our approach is centered around acquiring or developing multi-family residential assets.

We look for value-add opportunities.

This often means buying older, run-down properties and repositioning them through renovations and better management.

In addition to value-add acquisitions, we also do multi-family infill development.

After the assets are renovated or fully constructed, we manage them as long-term rentals, providing housing for the working middle class.

Depending on where we are in the market cycle, I focus on matching market trends with the best strategy to capture the upside for our investor partners.

We pick real estate because it is an asset class I find attractive for building wealth and generating steady, consistent returns over the long term.

Just because I have not written much about Alberta lately, it does not mean I am not bullish

Real estate always comes back to two core drivers.

Jobs and population growth.

The outlook for both in Alberta remains very strong.

Even though the next couple of years are likely to be sluggish across Canada, Alberta is positioned to “lead” the way.

I put lead in quotes because it will not be as explosive as what we experienced over the past two to three years.

Take a look at these population projection charts from ATB Economics.

Zeroing in on Statistics Canada’s “M2” medium-growth scenario, Alberta’s population grows from about 5 million residents today to over 7.3 million in 2050. At 46%, Alberta’s population growth over the projection period is the highest of any province with the national population growing by a more modest 17%.
Source: ATB Economics

While growth has slowed from the peak years of 2023 and 2024, a 46 percent long-term growth rate is still more than double the national average.

What makes this even more interesting is that this growth is happening without the massive immigration surge we saw in recent years.

At some point, Ottawa will have to increase immigration again.

Baby boomers are retiring at a record pace. We will need more people simply to replace retirees and sustain economic activity.

Meanwhile, the job market is continuing to lead in Alberta compared to the rest of Canada.

Time frame model of investing

Most investors focus on asset class or annualized ROI.

We have previously written about how highly successful entrepreneurs view their portfolios differently, through a time frame model:

https://www.ecresearchgroup.com/p/investing-timeframe

Whenever I see a strong tailwind pushing an asset forward, I pay close attention.

Back in 2003, Apple launched the iTunes Music Store.

Source: Apple Insider

For the first time, music could be downloaded instantly, transferred to an iPod, and enjoyed without stepping foot into a CD store.

Song previews, one-click purchases, instant downloads.

It was a tectonic event!

When I saw, I knew

Most people did not believe Apple would revolutionize the music industry at the time.

This was before the iPhone or iPad were introduced.

The only 2 things people saw were:

iPod and iTunes Music Store.

Investors thought those were just a hobby product and service from Apple.

Most were thinking Apple as a computer company, not a consumer electronics company.

But I knew the way we enjoy music had changed forever.

As a university student, I did not have much cash to invest.

What I did know:

The tailwind was real.

In 2006, I took what little I had saved from skipping eating out and living on PB&J and spaghetti for a week, and I bought some Apple stocks.

Adjusted for multiple stock splits since then, those shares would be priced at roughly $1.41 each.

Over nearly two decades, I trimmed some and added more along the way.

In April 2025, I finally exited half of my position in Apple at around $200 per share.

Source: Yahoo Finance

The lesson is simple.

Tailwinds matter. Time frame matters.

When there’s a strong tailwind, we want to give it time to capture the upside from the opportunity.

Alberta has that kind of tailwind.

That is why I study macro trends.

It is far easier to generate strong returns when demand is being pushed forward by structural forces like population growth.

Even though Alberta real estate has hit a short-term speed bump, the long-term fundamentals remain intact.

For the investors who understand the investing time frame, this current blip in the market is just that, a blip.

I remain very bullish on Alberta for the long term.

Even if I have not written about it much lately.

If you like my work, I invite you to share it with others.

Thanks for reading EC Research Group - Empowering Busy Investors in 10 mins! This post is public so feel free to share it.

Eric Chang

Cardston, Alberta, Canada

February 10, 2026

Did I really predict the Gold crash?

Eric Chang — Wed, 04 Feb 2026 00:01:58 GMT

On February 12, we’ll be releasing my 2026 Economy & Market Predictions. You can register with this link below:

https://luma.com/3w8rdwj9

Last week I hosted a Review of my 2025 Market & Economy Predictions.

It was great seeing some of you, our loyal readers on the zoom call!

Why reviewing predictions matters more than making them

Everyone loves predictions when they are right.

They get shared. They get quoted. They get remembered.

Very few people want to revisit predictions when they are wrong.

That discomfort is exactly why reviewing predictions matters more than making them in the first place.

During the call, I walked through my 2025 Economy & Market Predictions and did something not every commentators will do.

I put them side by side with reality and asked one simple question.

What actually happened, and why?

Not to defend myself. Not to prove anything. But to learn.

Anyone can make bold calls. That part is easy. The hard part is accountability. Sitting with the outcomes. Studying what I missed. Understanding whether my logic was sound or whether I was simply lucky.

This is why prediction reviews are so powerful.

It opens up my thinking process. It keeps me humble. It sharpens my judgment over time.

If you missed it, reply to this email and my team will send you the recording.

During the call, I’ve mentioned how Gold is very likely to “crash” soon.

I’ve written about becoming bearish or concerned about Gold in last week’s newsletter.

Couple days after the Review of my 2025 Predictions call, Gold and Silver crashed.

Gold dropped around 16% from 5,589 to 4,672.

While Silver plummeted 36% from 121 to 78.

How did I get that call perfectly, on the money?

Do I have a secret crystal ball?

Reader Shelley sent me a message over the weekend:

When you said we might be getting near the top of the rise, you weren’t kidding.

This was what I replied to her:

I certainly don’t have a secret crystal ball tucked away somewhere.
But I’ve been playing in the market for about 20 years now.
I’ve seen my fair share of cycles and know what to look for.
This is why I’m very cautious when people were going crazy on crypto. It was looking too frothy.
Same with gold a few days back.

I got “lucky”

It is impossible to know when the top or bottom is for a market or an asset.

I want to make sure I give credit where its due.

I got lucky with the timing of the call.

Simple as that.

That being said, there’s this quote I like:

Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity

It is possible to create “luck” by being more prepared.

Warren Buffett has repeated shared his belief against timing the market:

Time in the market is more important than timing the market

Meanwhile, we see him making moves ahead of a market crash by selling off assets and raising cash. Then buying cheap assets by deploying cash during or after a crash in prices.

We’ve written several issues on Berkshire’s massive cash like position - $382 Billions worth.

You can read up here and here.

This is the part that can be confusing to investors.

Why is Warren Buffett saying not timing the market and meanwhile, he does “time” the market when it gets close to major market top and bottom?

This is because, he is expert at understanding market cycles.

He doesn’t know when the exact top or bottom is.

But he does know when the top or bottom is near.

That’s why he has been preparing for a market correction for some time now.

He is once again, not “timing” the market, but getting prepared for what’s to come.

Is he lucky or is he prepared?

One can say he is lucky many times, or from my observation, he is simply well prepared for the next best opportunity to appear.

My secret “crystal ball”

In case there’s any doubt, I’ll clear the air here:

I don’t have a secret crystal ball tucked away somewhere.

I wish I did.

But I don’t.

What I do have, is an obsession toward studying the financial markets.

I’ve been following the market and the macro economy for close to 20 years.

For the past few years, I’ve spent an average of 10 hours a week studying and tracking the economy and the markets.

It’s a topic I find deeply interesting.

Even though I don’t have an actual crystal ball, I take the following approach to navigate the market.

You could call them my “crystal ball”:

Read, watch a lot of contents on financial markets & investing
Study economic data, especially the non-government data
Talk to uber drivers, waiters regularly to get a pulse on the real economy
Think contrarian, be a devil’s advocate
Study market cycles
Evaluating technical charting patterns

2026 Economy & Market Predictions

Once again, I’m going to tap into my “crystal ball” and make 10 predictions on what I think may happen and where the market is going this year.

Contrary to last year, it was one of the most challenging environment as the world navigates the dynamic trade situation with the US.

This year, I believe it’s much easier to make educated predictions.

As investors, I believe it’s critical to understand the bigger picture - the macro economic trends and forces driving the decision making in Ottawa and Washington.

Those decisions will ultimately affect us and our portfolio.

If you would like to see the 10 predictions I’m making for 2026 Economy & Market Predictions, you can sign up and attend live here:

https://luma.com/3w8rdwj9

If you like my work, I invite you to share it with others.

Thanks for reading EC Research Group - Empowering Busy Investors in 10 mins! This post is public so feel free to share it.

Eric Chang

Cardston, Alberta, Canada

February 3, 2026

If everyone is making money... you’re too late

Eric Chang — Wed, 28 Jan 2026 00:23:50 GMT

On January 28, we’ll review my 2025 Economy & Market Predictions. You can register with this link below:

https://luma.com/t8r8nnt8

For those of you who have been reading our newsletter for a while, it is no secret that I have been very bullish on Gold.

The earliest I wrote about it was on September 23, 2025

Since then, I have continued to mention Gold in several follow up issues:

Here, here, and here

Each one focused on a different angle, but all pointed in the same direction: capital was quietly repositioning.

What you may not know is that I have been talking about Gold since January 2023, when gold was trading at $1,891 US per ounce compared to today’s price at $5,159.

That is a 173 percent gain in just three years.

Law of returning to the mean

For the longest time, I would geek out studying company balance sheets and listening to quarterly earnings conference calls, searching for uncovered investment ideas.

I was a traditionalist.

A value investor studying the work of Warren Buffett.

There is no doubt he is the Oracle of Omaha.

As a traditionalist, I believed deeply in the law of returning to the mean.

Things that go way above normal usually come back down.

Things that go way below normal usually come back up.

Think of a rubber band.

Pull it far enough in one direction, and when you let go, it snaps back toward the middle.

Markets behave the same way:

When prices go up too fast, they often slow down or fall
When prices fall hard, they often bounce back

The “mean” is simply the long term middle.

Over time, prices tend to drift back toward it.

What works long term doesn’t always work in the short term

Over the long term, the law of returning to the mean plays out again and again.

Given enough time, excesses correct themselves.

This is why value investors look for undervalued assets.

Strong assets that are priced well below fair value tend to recover, over the long term.

However, what I did not understand for years was “money flow”.

You see, long term investing is very different than short term investing.

They are two completely different games.

Value investing works best when you adopt Warren Buffett’s mindset: own great businesses and never sell.

In the short term, however, money flow has a much larger impact on price than fundamentals ever will.

Using Tesla as an example

Ask almost any value investor what they think about Tesla today.

Most will tell you it is wildly overpriced.

Tesla is currently trading around a 299x price to earnings ratio.

Put simply, assuming no growth, it would take 299 years to earn back the original investment.

Imagine buying a lemonade stand for $100.

Every year, it generates $20 in profit.

How long does it take to earn your money back?

$20 profit (earning) per year
$100 original investment

Five years.

That is a PE ratio of five.

Now compare Tesla to a well run technology powerhouse like Apple.

Apple trades around a PE of 35.

By buying Tesla at current levels, investors are effectively saying Tesla is 8.5 times more valuable than Apple.

Or put another way, Tesla must grow 8.5 times faster than Apple to be worth the premium placed on the Tesla stocks.

By traditional valuation metrics, Tesla is extremely overvalued.

Yet that does not stop investors from piling in - for the short term.

Money flows to where it is treated best

A mentor of mine used to repeat that phrase constantly.

I previously wrote about this phenomenon in Money Loves Momentum, where I explained how capital chases performance, not logic.

Short term investing is dominated by money flow.

And money will always move to where it is treated best, even if only temporarily.

Today, Gold is where it is treated best

When I gave several private investor presentations in 2025, I outlined why Gold mattered in the years ahead.

That thesis came from a traditionalist’s lens:

Macro economics
Geopolitical tensions
Exploding government debt

Those conditions still exist today.

Over the long term, I remain confident in Gold.

Governments around the world are competing to run the largest deficits imaginable.

In a rare moment of unity, nearly every country has embraced what I call DUMP, the Department of Unlimited Money Printing.

Currency debasement is no longer subtle.

Gold started as an insurance for wealth.

It has now become a speculative asset.

What we are seeing in Gold prices today is not normal.

A full year of gains compressed into a single month.

That kind of move attracts attention, capital, and momentum traders who do not care about fundamentals.

For the first time in years, I am cautious on Gold in the short term

Strong performance alone does not make me cautious.

What does is this:

Friends and family members with little investing experience are now asking me about Gold - people like my parents.

That is a contrarian indicator I have relied on for years.

When my parents and family members told me to look at Toronto real estate because it was booming, I knew the top was near.

Within twelve months, the Toronto market peaked and corrected.

When everyone is making money, history teaches us one lesson over and over again:

You are probably late.

Switching between long term and short term thinking is difficult

Our brain prefers one framework.

Holding two opposing views at the same time is uncomfortable.

This is why I publicly share my annual predictions.

It holds me accountable and challenges me to look at investments from different time frames.

On January 28, I will be reviewing my 2025 predictions live, showing what I got right and what I missed.

If you want to join us, you can register here:

https://luma.com/t8r8nnt8

If you like my work, I invite you to share it with others.

Thanks for reading EC Research Group - Empowering Busy Investors in 10 mins! This post is public so feel free to share it.

Eric Chang

Cardston, Alberta, Canada

January 27, 2026

Prediction is a fool’s errand

Eric Chang — Wed, 21 Jan 2026 00:29:25 GMT

On January 28, we’ll review my 2025 Economy & Market Predictions. You can register with this link below:

https://luma.com/t8r8nnt8

For years, I’ve been the “go to guy” for my family and friends when they want an opinion on where I think the market is going.

Before they bought real estate, they called me.

Before they invested in xyz, they called me.

When the market crashed, they called me.

I’ve been following the market and the macro economy for many years.

For the past few years, I’ve spent an average of 10 hours a week studying and tracking the economy and the markets.

It’s a topic I find deeply interesting.

Since 2023, I’ve been sharing my annual Economy & Market predictions publicly.

What started as sharing research and data I was already doing for myself led to something unexpected.

One thing led to another, and I’ve now given presentations to hundreds of people on this topic — online and at private investor events.

Not because I have all the answers.

But because examining my thinking publicly sharpens it.

Prediction is a fool’s errand

Anyone who has been investing for a long time knows that making market predictions is a fool’s errand.

There are simply too many variables at play:

Central bank decisions that can shift sentiment overnight
Government policy changes, elections, and fiscal surprises
Geopolitical conflicts that erupt without warning
Technological breakthroughs that disrupt entire industries
Investor psychology swinging between fear and greed
Black swan events that nobody models for

Even when we “get it right,” hindsight often reveals that part of it was timing… and part of it was luck, and the rest is the actual experience.

Markets are complex adaptive systems.

They don’t move in straight lines.

That’s why prediction is so hard.

Why make a “fool” out of myself?

Few people like to make a fool out of themselves.

Putting predictions in writing, publicly, guarantees one thing:

Someone will remind you when you’re wrong.

So why do it?

I do this publicly to hold myself accountable.

It challenges me to go back and examine what I got wrong, and more importantly, why I got it wrong based on the logic I used at the time.

Because I don’t have a crystal ball, it’s impossible to be 100% right.

What I’ve noticed, though, is that I learn an enormous amount from reviewing how the dots were connected, and how they should have been connected differently.

It’s a challenging process.

And interestingly, it’s also quite fun.

The benefit is significant: it directly translates into better investing decisions.

And better decisions, when executed properly, can result in handsome payoffs.

Not every opportunity is investable

Investing is difficult because it’s a constant tug-of-war between emotion, logic, and intuition.

We’ve written about logic and intuition before here:

https://www.ecresearchgroup.com/p/logic-vs-intuition

Money is deeply emotional.

Because it’s tied to very different things for each of us:

To some, it represents security, power, or control
To others, it’s enjoyment, lifestyle, or freedom
And to some, it’s status, validation, or self-worth

Emotion is a big one to navigate.

Left unchecked, it’s usually the most expensive one.

Next comes logic and intuition - two sides of the same coin:

Identifying the right trend: sometimes an uptrend is just a “fake out,” where momentum fades and reverses
Finding the right asset (the vehicle) to ride the wave (market): not all assets benefit equally from the same trend, and some carry risks that only show up once conditions change.
Knowing the entry: paying too much can ruin a good idea, how to scale into a position or asset class
Knowing when to exit: staying too long can turn a win into a loss; cashing out too early leaves too much money on the table; exiting right is usually much harder than entering

We don’t write much about intuition because there’s not much to write about.

It often sounds like:

“This feels like 1999 again.”

“This feels like a bubble.”

“This feels like it could pop soon.”

The people who lived through those cycles are usually the ones with the sharpest intuition.

That said, since 2023, I’ve performed “above average”.

Not a bad shooting percentage

Let’s be clear: this isn’t perfection.

For the 2023 Economy & Market predictions, I missed two.

For 2024, out of the 10 predictions, I got six right and three partially right.

Pretty good if you were to ask me.

On January 28, I’ll once again put myself under the microscope and publicly review how I performed with my 2025 predictions:

https://luma.com/t8r8nnt8

If you’re interested in attending, not just to see what was right or wrong, but why those mistakes were made based on the logic laid out at the beginning of 2025, this is a Zoom call you won’t want to miss.

By learning from mistakes, we become stronger and better investors.

After all, doing well in the coming years will require foresight: the ability to see where the world is going, and to skate to where the puck is going.

Prediction may be a fool’s errand.

The real edge is being prepared when others are not.

Click here to register - Review of 2025 Economy & Market Predictions

If you like my work, I invite you to share it with others.

Thanks for reading EC Research Group - Empowering Busy Investors in 10 mins! This post is public so feel free to share it.

Eric Chang

Lethbridge, Alberta, Canada

January 20, 2026

Cash is trash, but liquidity is king

Eric Chang — Wed, 14 Jan 2026 00:01:04 GMT

It’s human nature to want safety.

When the world feels unstable, the instinct is simple: retreat to cash.

Over the past year, I’ve spoken with many investors who felt completely stuck throughout 2025. And honestly, I don’t blame them. We’ve been dealing with a rare combination of pressures hitting all at once:

Trade tensions that moved from headlines to real economic consequences
Geopolitical instability across multiple regions of the world
Asset prices at record highs, even as uncertainty keeps rising

When stocks, real estate (Alberta), and precious metals are all trading near all time high, it’s natural to wonder:

Am I buying at the very top?

So people wait.

They hold cash.

They tell themselves they’re being “safe.”

But safety deserves a closer look.

The illusion of safety (The debasement trap)

Cash feels safe because it doesn’t feel like it’s moving up and down everyday.

But that’s exactly the problem.

We are living in an era where money quietly loses value every single year.

Faced with hard choices, governments and politicians almost always choose the path of least resistance: spending more and printing more.

Looking ahead to 2026, that pressure is only increasing.

This year, currency debasement is only going to accelerate.

Because of 1 simple reason:

The US’s mid-term election in November.

If your money is standing still, its purchasing power is moving backwards.

Cash may feel comforting, but comfort is not the same as protection.

Why liquidity matters more than cash

This is where the distinction matters:

Cash is static.

Liquidity is strategic.

Liquidity gives you options.

One of the best real-world examples is Berkshire Hathaway, previously led by Warren Buffett.

He has since retired from the company at the end of last year.

By late 2025, Berkshire was sitting on roughly $382 billion in cash-like assets.

That money isn’t there because Buffett is fearful.

It’s there because he’s patient, and strategic.

Liquidity allows him to act when volatility forces great assets to sell at bad prices.

It’s dry powder, waiting for the right moment.

That’s the mindset most investors find it challenging:

Liquidity isn’t idle.

It’s prepared.

I manage liquidity the same way I adjust a faucet, turning it up or down depending on conditions.

Approach #1: Adjust liquidity with the market cycle

Markets move in cycles.

They always have.

When optimism is high and valuations are stretched, liquidity should increase.

When fear dominates and prices are compressed, liquidity should be deployed.

Simple rules:

Near market peaks: Raise liquidity
Near market bottoms: Be bold to push the chips all in

This isn’t about predicting exact tops or bottoms.

It’s about positioning so you’re able to take advantage when great opportunities arise.

Approach #2: Strategic selling

Most investors understand diversification.

Fewer understand discipline.

The hardest action in investing isn’t buying, it’s selling.

When a position grows too large, it quietly introduces concentration risk.

Strategic selling trims winners back to target allocations, converting overexposure into liquidity.

Same thing applies to taking losses on the losers.

This applies beyond stocks.

Real estate, for example, is inherently long-term.

We can’t rebalance it with a mouse click.

But we can manage our equity position.

Recently with my own portfolio, I’ve sold off smaller real estate assets that reached their original objectives while holding onto core long-term properties.

This approach let me raise meaningful liquidity without abandoning the asset class for the long term.

I took some chips off the table, without leaving the game.

Approach #3: Keep liquidity working (short-term investments)

Liquidity doesn’t mean doing nothing.

When markets are uncertain and long-term opportunities aren’t yet attractive, capital can still work in shorter time frames.

I wrote about the time frame investing framework previously here:

https://www.ecresearchgroup.com/p/investing-timeframe

For me, that has included:

Short-term gold trading strategies, as protection against currency debasement
Private lending, generating yield while maintaining access to capital

The goal is simple:

Protect purchasing power while staying flexible.

Dry powder should stay dry, but it doesn’t have to sit idle.

Interestingly, over this past year, my short term strategies are out performing my long term assets.

Professionals rarely are fully invested

One of the biggest differences between amateurs and professional investors is this:

Amateurs fear missing out.

Professionals fear being trapped.

Being fully invested at all times removes your ability to act when opportunity appears.

Liquidity is what allows great investors to buy when others are forced to sell.

And in an environment where currencies are being diluted faster than ever, learning how to balance liquidity and debasement will be the theme for this year.

Make sure your faucet is adjustable.

Because when the market volatility increases, the professionals are ready.

How about you?

Will you be ready to move?

If you like my work, I invite you to share it with others.

Thanks for reading EC Research Group - Empowering Busy Investors in 10 mins! This post is public so feel free to share it.

Eric Chang

Calgary, Alberta, Canada

January 13, 2026

What I Learned from 2025

Eric Chang — Wed, 07 Jan 2026 00:44:16 GMT

At the beginning of 2025, I had a big plan in place for our real estate company.

For more than a year, I had been developing a relationship with a seasoned development expert — we’ll call him Mr. Half a Billion.

The nickname fits.

He has overseen over $500M worth of real estate projects throughout his career.

Entering into 2025, we had a little over 20M of development projects in our pipeline.

That amount consisted a number of smaller projects, combined.

Our plan was to pursuing larger-scale development projects in the $20–30M range each.

It was exciting.

I had already floated the idea to a few of our partners, planting the seed that we might be bringing in additional capital partners on the next deal.

We even had a beautiful plot of land under review: underwriting, running models, stress-testing assumptions.

Everything was lined up.

Then…

Few weeks into the year, everything changed

The plan was put on hold.

The tariff war began.

At first, it was just rhetoric, a war of words.

Then came the threats.

Then came the real uncertainty.

For a development project in the $20–30M range, confidence in the numbers matters more than optimism.

And suddenly, confidence disappeared.

Would tariffs be 10%?

Or 25%?

Which materials would be affected?

When costs can swing hundreds of thousands based on policy headlines, no amount of fancy formulas on a spreadsheet can adequately model a project.

Uncertainty spiked through the roof.

Frozen business climate

Similar to the freezing Canadian winter, many Canadian businesses were paralyzed in Q1.

Deals stalled.

Expansion plans paused.

Capital sat on the sidelines.

I spoke with business owners across different industries, not just real estate.

The tone was the same everywhere:

“We’re waiting to see what happens.”

Waiting is understandable.

But waiting also comes with a cost.

In a frozen environment, doing nothing often feels safer than making a decision.

Yet, indecision quietly erodes momentum.

Letting go is easy, making the decision is harder

On paper, walking away sounded simple.

In reality, it wasn’t.

A lot went into building the relationship with Mr. Half a Billion:

Countless conversations
Shared visions
Trust built over time

On top of that, we had already invested significant time, effort, and capital into due diligence on the potential project:

Land analysis.

Preliminary designs.

Financial modeling.

As it turns out, letting go of the project itself wasn’t the hardest part.

The hardest part?

Making the decision.

Thanks to the tariff threat, we were forced to pivot

One door closes, another opens.

It may sound cliché, but it’s an essential mindset - especially in investing and business.

If we had pushed forward with the original plan, I’m 99% certain it would not have turned into a good investment.

So we officially walked away.

The entire expansion plan - working on bigger projects with Mr. Half a Billion, nearly a year in the making.

Went back on the shelf.

At first, it felt like a setback.

In hindsight, it was a gift.

The 2025 pivot opened us up to bigger and better opportunities.

Opportunities we likely wouldn’t have seen if we were still emotionally attached to the original plan.

For now, I’m not ready to share the details just yet.

We will share them when they are ready in the coming months and years.

2026 Economy and Market Predictions

Which brings us to this time of the year.

As what I have been doing the past few years, I’m sharing publicly of my annual Economy and Market Predictions.

I’ll be releasing my 2026 Predictions soon.

In the past, this has been one of our most popular webinars.

What attendees consistently tell me they appreciate is this:

I present charts and data in a way that everyday investors can understand, and then connect the dots with how I believe things could unfold in the year ahead.

We haven’t finalized the date and time yet.

If you’re interested, simply reply to this email, and we’ll let you know once everything is confirmed.

If you like my work, I invite you to share it with others.

Thanks for reading EC Research Group - Empowering Busy Investors in 10 mins! This post is public so feel free to share it.

Eric Chang

Toronto, Ontario, Canada

January 6, 2026

Wrapping up 2025

Eric Chang — Wed, 31 Dec 2025 00:01:05 GMT

2025 was a year to remember for anyone following geopolitics and financial markets.

It was noisy.

Emotional.

At times exhausting.

But also incredibly interesting.

Looking back through our EC Research Newsletter archive, this past year offered no shortage of lessons, surprises, and opportunities for those staying engaged and thinking independently.

Let’s take a walk through the year, quarter by quarter.

Q1

After years of steadily declining in popularity with Canadians, Trudeau finally stepped down.

Each passing year, his approval ratings moved lower and lower, much like a limbo bar.

Somehow, election after election, he kept clearing it.

Maybe it was his age.

Maybe the bar just got too low.

Whatever the reason, he finally walked away.

We documented Trudeau’s economic highlights here:

https://www.ecresearchgroup.com/p/trudeau-economic-highlights

At the same time, investors were dealing with an extremely volatile business environment in the United States.

Watching the US tariff policy in Q1 felt like watching a ship captain trying to steer through a cyclone.

The constant policy gyrations took a real emotional toll on investors and business executives alike.

In the middle of that storm, we wrote about the Mexicans attitude to tariffs and uncertainty. It was one of those moments where emotion, not logic, dominated the headlines:

https://www.ecresearchgroup.com/p/emotional-tariffs

Q2

The second quarter delivered a sharp drawdown in the stock market.

While many retail investors were caught off guard, most professional investors were not.

Leading up to the correction, professionals were already reducing exposure and trimming risk.

We covered this dynamic and explained why experienced capital tends to turn conservative before volatility becomes obvious:

https://www.ecresearchgroup.com/p/why-professional-investors-are-conservative

It was a reminder that markets often move long before the headlines catch up.

Q3

In Q3, I shared one of my favorite frameworks of the year with our readers.

The Time Frame approach to portfolio construction, versus the commonly discussed asset based approach.

https://www.ecresearchgroup.com/p/investing-timeframe

This newsletter issue was one of my personal favorites of the year.

I love frameworks.

Because it helps simplify complex concepts into models that can be used and applied.

Personally, I use the Time Frame model to build my own portfolio.

Yes, I eat my own dog food.

If you missed that issue, I strongly encourage you to go back and read it.

It remains one of the most powerful concepts we published all year.

Q4

The crowd favorite of 2025 arrived in Q4:

https://www.ecresearchgroup.com/p/goodbye-doge-hello-dump

I coined an acronym, DUMP:

The Department of Unlimited Money Printing.

That issue sparked more private messages and likes than any other newsletter this year.

I read every single message, and I genuinely appreciate you for taking the time to write.

What surprised me most was seeing two popular Substack publishers, with tens of thousands of subscribers, gave us the recognition and shout out:

https://substack.com/@becomingberkshire

https://substack.com/@goldenbearcapital

That was unexpected, and very much appreciated.

If you have not read that issue yet, I recommend you do.

Better yet, read it again.

Because as we’re heading into 2026, I believe we are about to experience money printing on a scale we have not seen since COVID.

What a year it has been

2025 was not an easy year to navigate real estate, the economy, or the markets.

But we ended the year on a high note.

Not all of my predictions came true.

Of course not.

I do not have a crystal ball.

But the important ones did.

And they produced great returns.

That is why I love this game.

It keeps me sharp.

It keeps me humble.

It requires constant learning.

No one can ever claim they know enough to permanently win at investing.

The landscape is always changing.

But as I have mentioned many times before:

History never repeats, they rhyme.

And success leaves clues.

That is why we study history.

That is why we study the best investors.

And based on what I’m noticing, that is also why I am cautiously optimistic for 2026.

Here’s to another crazy year steering the ship through the storm.

Stay tuned for the upcoming review of my previous 2025 predictions, followed shortly by my 2026 predictions of the year.

Until then, have a great Happy New Year.

See you all on the flip side.

If you like my work, I invite you to share it with others.

Thanks for reading EC Research Group - Empowering Busy Investors in 10 mins! This post is public so feel free to share it.

Eric Chang

Toronto, Ontario, Canada

December 30, 2025

Final thing before the holidays…

Eric Chang — Wed, 24 Dec 2025 02:07:44 GMT

I’m currently sitting in YYC, Calgary International Airport catching a flight to Toronto to visit families during the holidays.

While this newsletter has been primarily focused on finance and investing, I’d like to take this opportunity to refocus on why many of us do what we do.

To most people, we invest to put our money to work with the goals of having a comfortable retirement, providing for families, or leaving a legacy.

While I don’t want to speak for everyone, I think most would agree that we want the money we invested to work for us to buy back time, and give us more freedom and the ability to spend more quality time with the people we care and love.

I sent the following messages to my students in the ALT (Asymmetrical Leveraged Trading) program today.

Thought it’s fitting to share them with you as it applies to investing and life in general:

Final thing before the holidays…

The holiday period is known to have smaller trading volume.

The big Wall Street traders are on holidays.

Meaning the market could move more dramatic than usual because less people are trading it.

Do yourself a favor, once you’re positioned in those trades, put your phone and computer away and not look at your account for few days (even all the way to the new year).

It may feel uncomfortable, it could be some noise in the market that simply doesn’t even mean anything.

Take this time to be with friends and families

Enjoy the break and forget about trading.

After all, we trade to create income to give us more time and freedom to do what’s important - spend more quality time with the people we love.

Don’t let trading affect or ruin your holidays.

Trust me, this comes from someone who has traded for many years. It’s not worth the extra stress.

If you know that’s going to be on your mind the entire time, do yourself a favor and sell off some positions so you feel comfortable not having to look at the market every day.

All of these Example Trades are in anticipation of a nice pop in gold in the new year

If you are feeling anxious (which is normal when it comes to trading), it means you’re over leveraged.

May not be over leveraged financially, but emotionally.

An emotional tax on yourself is not worth any amount of money you could have made, especially during a holiday time when it’s meant for us to spend quality time with our families.

Sharing these thoughts for you as my gift 🎁 to all of you.

If you missed it

Our ALT (Asymmetrical Leveraged Trading) program will be completed in a month.

In less than 1 month, our results are as impressive as promised (if you attended our previous zoom call):

If you don’t know what ALT is, you can read about it here:

https://www.ecresearchgroup.com/p/the-power-of-asymmetrical-leveraged

Wishing everyone a great Christmas and holidays.

If you like my work, I invite you to share it with others.

Thanks for reading EC Research Group - Empowering Busy Investors in 10 mins! This post is public so feel free to share it.

Eric Chang

Calgary, Alberta, Canada

December 23, 2025